Resumo

CARMONA LOPEZ, Antonio Maximino; MOLINA VARGAS, Alejandro  e  RUIZ MARTINEZ, Alfredo. Determinants of tax revenue in Mexico. Anál. econ. [online]. 2019, vol.34, n.87, pp.177-197.  Epub 13-Nov-2020. ISSN 2448-6655.

The objective of this paper is to identify the macroeconomic variables that determine the tax revenue in Mexico, period 2010-2018, with data from the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). To do this, various statistical tests are performed, applying linear and non-linear regression models. The Cobb-Douglas production function is chosen as a parametric model and the explanatory variables are selected: capital, represented by the Gross Formation of Capital (FBKF) plus the Variation of Stocks (VE); labor, constituted by the Occupied Population (PEAocupada). The results show that the variables used determine the behavior of the tax revenue. In addition, two things are observed: there is a high growth of the assets of the companies to reduce their taxable base in the Income Tax, and there is an evasion gap between the universe of active taxpayers who present declarations with payment and the PEAocupada, which it negatively affects the taxpayer base.

Palavras-chave : Capital; employment; fiscal policy; taxation; tax evasion.

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