Objective:

To develop a forecasting model to support decision-making on mitigation measures of covid-19 in jalisco.

Material and methods:

A mathematical model with a deterministic approach s.e.i.r. was developed. To show the evidence in the development of the covid-19 pandemic in jalisco. The states considered were susceptible (s), exposed (e), infected (i) and recovered / deceased (r). Population data were obtained based on conapo 2020, with a population of 8,368,311 inhabitants.

The following parameters β, γ and σ were taken to calibrate it from the estimates of r0, so that the model reproduces itself as best as possible, since the assumption is that there is no external intervention that affects the contact rate and due to that in jalisco intervention measures were applied. 5 different scenarios were proposed, varying the basic number of reproduction (r0) as a mitigation variable. The series were extended in time.

Results:

The worst case scenario (without intervention) would occur in the first week of june with r0 = 3 affecting 73.2% of the population, but due to the mitigation measures applied, it is observed that the best adjustment for the state it is for ro = 2.2 (mitigation 37.2%) beginning in the last week of july, affecting 58.9% of the population, showing a less acute phase than that of no intervention but of longer duration, approximately 40 weeks.

Conclusions:

Continuous monitoring, adjustment and adaptation of mitigation measures are required in the containment and sustained transmission phases, with an increase in diagnostic capacity through tests and increased social distancing. In addition, new periods of intermittent social distancing would be required to prevent the collapse of the state health system, which would be activated with the increase in the basic rate of reproduction r0.

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