Introduction:

The dynamics of land use and changes in vegetation cover is essential for natural resource management.

Objetive:

To analyze the land use change in the micro-watersed of Zoquiapan, between 1989 and 2009, and to estimate the change trend for the year 2020.

Materials and methods:

Two satellite images (March 21, 2009 and March 7, 1989) were taken, corresponding to the Landsat sensor, and were processed using the software IDRISI©. The classes studied were forest, grassland and agricultural use. The Márkov-Markovian transition estimator command was applied to estimate the stationary vector of the chain between the years of study and to know the future trends of vegetation cover.

Results and discussion:

Between 1989 and 2009, the agricultural and grassland area decreased 1.86 and 88.63 ha, respectively; the forest area increased 90.5 ha. By 2020, the micro-watershed of Zoquiapan will have a low probability of change. The probabilities of permanence are 94 % for forest, 88 % for grassland and 91 % for agricultural activities.

Conclusion:

The micro-watershed of Zoquiapan has not had any significant land use change. The areas covered by forests have a low probability of change, as long as the conservation efforts carried out so far continue.

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