SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.22 número2Módulos de rigidez dinámicos de siete maderas mexicanas determinados por vibraciones en torsionEspecies de Trichoderma del agroecosistema cacao con potencial de biocontrol sobre Moniliophthora roreri índice de autoresíndice de assuntospesquisa de artigos
Home Pagelista alfabética de periódicos  

Serviços Personalizados

Journal

Artigo

Indicadores

Links relacionados

  • Não possue artigos similaresSimilares em SciELO

Compartilhar


Revista Chapingo serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente

versão On-line ISSN 2007-4018versão impressa ISSN 2007-3828

Resumo

CRUZ-CARDENAS, Gustavo et al. Potential distribution model of Pinaceae species under climate change scenarios in Michoacán. Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient [online]. 2016, vol.22, n.2, pp.135-148. ISSN 2007-4018.  http://dx.doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2015.06.027.

Michoacán is the fifth state with the greatest diversity of plant species, excelling due to its richness in families, genera and species of flowering trees in Mexico. Therefore, in this paper the potential distribution of 12 species of Pinaceae was evaluated in current conditions and future climate change scenarios through ecological niche models. Data on the current climate, future scenarios, soil properties and digital elevation model were used as environmental predictors. The modeling was done using the Maxent software. 75 % of the data on the species presence was used for the training of the models and the remaining 25 % for model validation. The output grids were classified into three categories of area for the species distribution: unsuitable, marginal and suitable. The models show that there will be a 16 to 40 % decrease in suitable areas in the 2015-2039 and 2075-2099 periods, respectively. The species most affected by the decrease in their distribution will be Abies religiosa, Pinus leiophylla and Pinus teocote.

Palavras-chave : Maximum entropy; neural networks; ecological niche; endemic species.

        · resumo em Espanhol     · texto em Inglês | Espanhol     · Inglês ( pdf ) | Espanhol ( pdf )