Resumo

SAENZ-ROMERO, Cuauhtemoc et al. Estimated decoupling of Agave cupreata populations to their suitable habitat due to climate change. Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient [online]. 2012, vol.18, n.3, pp.291-301. ISSN 2007-4018.  https://doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2011.11.078.

Mature individuals of Agave cupreata are harvested to produce an artisan distilled alcoholic beverage (mescal). The objective of this study was to estimate the potential decoupling of suitable habitat due to climatic change, between the populations and the climate for which they are adapted. Therefore, the contemporary (average 1961-1990) and future (decade centered in the year 2030) climate for 12 localities was estimated, where natural populations are distributed, using a spline climate model, based on outputs from the Canadian General Circulation Model and intermediate emission scenario A1B. Average temperature estimates of the 12 provenances for contemporary climate was 19.1 °C and precipitation estimates was 961 mm. Predicted for year 2030 was 20.5 °C and 833 mm, with a temperature increment of 1.4 °C and a precipitation decrease of 13.3 %. Results indicate that suitable climate for A. cupreata will occur at 175 to 225 m of higher elevations than the locations were populations are presently. Therefore, It is suggested to establish ex situ conservation and commercial plantations under the conditions mentioned above, as assisted migration management measure for adaptation to the predicted climatic change.

Palavras-chave : Agavaceae; global warming; assisted colonization; decoupling between genotype and environment; assisted migration.

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