Resumen

MARTINEZ SIFUENTES, J. A. et al. Climate change impact on areas with environmental aptitude for Bouteloua gracilis and Bouteloua repens in Mexico. Revista bio ciencias [online]. 2020, vol.7, e720.  Epub 18-Nov-2020. ISSN 2007-3380.  https://doi.org/10.15741/revbio.07.e720.

Grassland areas are characterized for having a ground cover which species from the Poaceae family predominate, among which Bouteloua genus stands out due to its quality as a fodder and its ecological characteristics. Temperature and precipitation are determinants for net primary productivity of grasslands, in which climate change could cause changes in the vegetation structure. Therefore, the objective of this research was to analyze the impact of climate change on areas with environmental fitness (EF) for Bouteloua gracilis and B. repens grasses in Mexico. Two climate change scenarios were analyzed, with representative concentration pathways of 4.5 and 8.5 for 2040-2060 and 2060-2080 periods. Twenty-eight environmental variables were used with Maxent model to analyze areas with EF for both species. Results showed that the annual average temperature will increase from 2.8 °C to 5.0 °C, with noticeable changes in arid and semiarid zones; the annual average precipitation will decrease from 3.1 % to 14.4 %, mainly in zones with averages lower than 600 mm. New areas with EF will appear in some zones of the country and some others will disappear due to climate change, although in generally there will be greater area with EF, with increases from 6.2% to 9.1 % for Bouteloua gracilis and from 13.4 % and 16.5 % for B. repens compared with the current surface.

Palabras llave : Bouteloua gracilis; Bouteloua repens; environmental fitness; climate change; Maxent.

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