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Tecnología y ciencias del agua

versão On-line ISSN 2007-2422

Resumo

HERNANDEZ-URIBE, Rubén Ernesto; BARRIOS-PINA, Héctor  e  RAMIREZ, Aldo I.. Flood risk analysis: Methodology and application to the Atemajac basin. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2017, vol.8, n.3, pp.5-25. ISSN 2007-2422.  http://dx.doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2017-03-01.

This paper shows a methodology of flood risk analysis applicable to urban basins and is addressed to decision makers for the mitigation of damages. The methodology is applied to the urban basin Atemajac, Jalisco, Mexico, where serious problems of flooding by overflowing of the main stream happen, causing severe damages. The methodology is based on two points of view that are complementary: the deterministic model, based on numerical modeling and damage determination; and the parametric model, where the parameters involved in vulnerability are homologated through dimensionless normalized indices, by social, economic, physical and environmental components. The results show zones under risk and high vulnerability by sections of the Atemajac River, defined according to the characteristics the river shows throughout it. From the deterministic model, flood and damage maps for 50 and 100 years return period were created, where zones under moderated to high risk along the river are identified. The Flood Vulnerability Index obtained with the parametric model are consistent with the results of the deterministic model, integrating the most significant indicators that define the degree of exposure, susceptibility and resilience, throughout the basin under study, in an easy way to understand for the decision markers.

Palavras-chave : Flood risk management; flood vulnerability; urban basins; deterministic model; parametric model.

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