Resumo

BRIGIDO, Juan Gabriel; NIKOLSKII, Iourii; TERRAZAS, Liliana  e  HERRERA, Sergio Santiago. Estimate of the Impact of Climate Change on Soil Fertility and Coffee Production in Veracruz, Mexico. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2015, vol.6, n.4, pp.101-116. ISSN 2007-2422.

Estimates of the vulnerability of crops to climate change typically ignore the possible alterations in the fertility of the soil caused by this phenomenon. The primary objective of the present work was to estimate the role of alterations in soil fertility in the predictions of coffee production (Coffea Arabica L.) for the end of the 21st century in 6 of the largest coffee producing regions in the state of Veracruz, Mexico. Three global circulation models were used with two radiative forcing scenarios. A crop development model was applied according to the biological and climate characteristics proposed by IIASA/ FAO. The model is extensively used worldwide. The calculations of cherry coffee production based on current climate conditions and their comparison with data reported by SAGARPA indicate that the yields calculated are reliable. The correlation coefficient between the calculated and observed yields is 0.93 with a standard error of 0.08. By the end of 21st century, as much as a 34% reduction in coffee production is expected. This varies among coffee regions primarily due to changes in rainfall , and to a lesser extent to increases in air temperature. A lack of knowledge about alterations in soil fertility caused by climate change can create errors as high as 40% in the estimation of coffee production. This factor should therefore not be overlooked.

Palavras-chave : Vulnerability; agriculture; local hydrothermal index; integral soil fertility index; climate change scenarios; state of Veracruz of Mexico.

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