Resumo

CAMPOS-ARANDA, Daniel Francisco. Probabilistic Estimation of Seasonal Floods Based on Maximum Flow Monthly Records. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.6, pp.177-187. ISSN 2007-2422.

Floods estimated by seasons o monthly periods of the year, are being used for hydrological dimensioning of control volume in medium and large reservoirs, as well as to protect activities in river-beds that are short in duration or seasonal. It has been suggested to define floodplains and areas of risk based on seasonal floods in rivers that behave very seasonally. This paper describes in detail the defining aspect of the seasons, and the method based on the annual series of maximum monthly flow to estimate the respective seasonal predictions. The numerical application of this procedure to data in Huites hydrometric station at Fuerte River of the Hydrologic Region No. 10 (Sinaloa) was carried out. The results are discussed concluding that both seasonal floods of four months, as well those of three months or seasons of year (winter, spring, summer and fall) are all minor than the annual ones, in the lower return periods of 100 years. Finally, two conclusions are formulated which point out the importance of seasonal floods and the simplicity of the method described for that estimation.

Palavras-chave : Seasonal predictions; annual series; statistical tests; probability distributions LP3; GEV; LOG and Wakeby; standard error of fit.

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