Resumen

CAMPOS-ARANDA, Daniel Francisco. Extreme 24Hour Rainfall Predictions in the State of Zacatecas, Mexico. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.5, pp.199-225. ISSN 2007-2422.

When determining the hydrological dimensions of both large and small hydraulic works that are dangerous because of their proximity to populations or important economic areas, the use of design floods associated with high return periods is common, such as 1 000 or 10 000 years. At times, the risk to be exceeded is even eliminated by using the maximum probable flood. Generally, probabilistic methods cannot be used to obtain these design floods since annual maximum flow data do not exist. Therefore, it is estimated using hydrological methods that convert design storms into response hydrographs. Unfortunately, pluviograph data are also scarce and, therefore, annual maximum daily rainfall (MDR) records are processed, which are much more common and widespread. This study processed 98 MDR records with over 25 data available for the state of Zacatecas. Seventeen were not homogeneous and were therefore eliminated. For the remaining 81, annual maximum series predictions were obtained for high return periods varying from 100 to 10 000 years. Predictions obtained with recurrence intervals of 100, 1 000 and 10 000 years were compared with those available from maximum isocurves published in 1976 by the former Secretary of Hydraulic Resources and found that such maps are still valid for the state of Zacatecas. The David M. Hershfield statistical method was also applied for estimating probable maximum precipitation (PMP) punctually with duration of 24 hours. This PMP ranged from 196.5 to 507.0 millimeters. Regarding the ratios between the PMP and the maximum observed value of DMP, and between PMP and the prediction of 10 000 years, their practical average magnitudes are 4.20 and 2.20, respectively. The regional frequency analyses performed in two geographic regions in the state of Zacatecas made it possible to demonstrate their usefulness and accuracy in estimating predictions for sites or localities in that region that do not contain data.

Palabras llave : Annual daily maximum precipitation; probable maximum precipitation; Log-Pearson Type III distribution; GEV distribution; standard error of fit; regional flood frequency analysis.

        · resumen en Español     · texto en Español     · Español ( pdf )