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Tecnología y ciencias del agua

On-line version ISSN 2007-2422

Abstract

MONTERO-MARTINEZ, Martín José et al. Query system for regionalized climate change projections for Mexico. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2013, vol.4, n.2, pp.113-128. ISSN 2007-2422.

Coupled general circulation models enable projecting future weather, but because there is no single model, several models are assembled. This work used a statistical method to obtain a set using 23 general circulation models with a confidence-weighted set algorithm that takes into account two confidence criteria: the performance of the model in reproducing the current climate and the convergence of projected changes among selected models. The data for precipitation and maximum and minimum surface temperatures were regionalized, with SRES-A1B and SRES-A2 scenarios for the 21st century, and the spatial resolution was increased to a regular mesh of 0.5 × 0.5° for Mexico. To facilitate the handling of these results, a system was developed-Sedepecc-which contains a database with the generated projections and presents them through a user-friendly interface. The analysis of projected anomalies for the current century in Mexico indicates an overall increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation in the country. The results indicate that the change in temperature will be greater during summer than during winter, and highlights that for the last three decades of the current century projected values are over 5 °C for some regions in central Mexico. As an application case for the system, climate change projections were generated for Irrigation District 075, located in northern Sinaloa State, Mexico.

Keywords : global warming; coupled general circulation models; set of climate scenarios; irrigation districts; scale-reduction techniques; informatics systems.

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