Resumen

PEREZ MIRANDA, Ramiro; MORENO SANCHEZ, Francisco; GONZALEZ HERNANDEZ, Antonio  y  ARREOLA PADILLA, Víctor. Potential distribution scenarios of Pinus patula Schltdl. et Cham. and Pinus pseudostrobus Lindl. in the State of Mexico under climate change models. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2013, vol.4, n.15, pp.73-86. ISSN 2007-1132.

The impacts of climate change (CC) in the development of flora change the spatial distribution of forest ecosystems. Some migrate to higher altitudes and elsewhere, so these species disappear totally or partially of its geographical area. The objective of the study was to compare the current potential distribution of P. patula and P. pseudostrobus under CC scenarios with general circulation models (GCMs) of the atmosphere and Regional assembly (Ra) of the MCG. The distribution of P. patula with CC scenarios A2 2030, the GFDL model was 10 705 has more surface area that HADGEM high fitness, while the Ra GCM was higher with 84 926 ha GFDL. By 2050, this ability to GFDL 2.0 was higher HADGEM surface with 20 482 ha; meantime the GCM Ra was highest with 62. 954 ha GFDL 2.0. The P. pseudostrobus 2030, the GFDL 2.0 had seven hectares of high fitness surface that HADGEM, however the GCM Ra was higher with 86 555 ha GFDL 2.0. By 2050, with GFDL 2.0 HADGEM was higher compared with 264 ha Ra GCM was higher with 84 457 ha GFDL 2.0. The potential distribution of the two species in the State of Mexico with CC scenarios tends to reduce its distribution area. Assemblies scenarios GCM applied to generate results allow greater detail than GCM.

Palabras llave : Potential distribution; climate change scenarios; general circulation models (GCMs); Pinus patula Schltdl. et Cham.; Pinus pseudostrobus Lindl.; GIS.

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