Resumo

RUIZ HERNANDEZ, Jaime Antonio; BARRIOS PUENTE, Gerónimo  e  GOMEZ GOMEZ, Alma Alicia. Analysis of the price of the apple using a SARIMA model. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2019, vol.10, n.2, pp.225-237. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v10i2.509.

The monitoring and prediction of prices is an important tool in decision making in productive activities. Based on the monthly average price data of the red delicious apple at a national level, from January 1998 to July 2017, published by the national system of information and market integration, with the Gretl® software. The objective of the research was to generate information on the price behavior of the apple by means of a time series analysis, generating a prediction for the following 12 months with a Sarima model $\text{ARIMA}\left(\text{2, 1, 0}\right)\text{×ARIMA (1, 1, 0}{\text{)}}_{\text{12}}$. The results indicated that the relative error for the prediction is 2%, which guarantees relatively good forecasts, it was predicted that the price for July 2018 would be $31.99.

Palavras-chave : ARIMA; agricultural prices; planning; prediction; time series; uncertainty.

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