Resumo

DELGADILLO AGUILAR, Niceforo; CHALITA TOVAR, Luis Eduardo  e  RAMIREZ VALVERDE, Gustavo. Mexican international migrants immersed in the agricultural sector: a probabilistic analysis. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2017, vol.8, n.2, pp.439-447. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v8i2.63.

The crisis in the Mexican agricultural sector has, among its many consequences, international emigration. The objective of the present study was to determine the factors influencing the probability that international migrants are immersed in the agricultural sector through a binary logistic regression model, as well as to describe the sociodemographic and labor profile in a historical way from 2005 to 2014 and thus propose agricultural and migratory policies that help to compensate the phenomenon. For this purpose, was used as the main input the information obtained from the construction of panels of the national survey of occupation and employment (ENOE). The results show that the majority of the emigrants belong to the agricultural sector and that when arriving in the United States they tend to engage in non-agricultural activities. Contrasting socio-demographic and labor characteristics among agricultural and non-agricultural emigrants reveals the precariousness in which both populations live, accentuating themselves with greater force in the agricultural sector. The best estimated model shows that being a male, living in localities less than 2 500 inhabitants, having up to 9 years of schooling, being in informal work and receiving up to two minimum wages, are the factors that best describe an emigrant who belonged to the agricultural sector.

Palavras-chave : binary logistic regression; ENOE; estimated model; socio-demographic and occupational profile.

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