Resumen

RIVERA HERNANDEZ, Benigno et al. Evidence of climate change in the state of Tabasco from 1961-2010. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.spe14, pp.2645-2656. ISSN 2007-0934.

Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM's) at regional level and for different scenarios, indicate that by the end of this century, in Tabasco the temperature can increase from 1 to 3.8 °C and annual precipitation can decrease to 14.4%. That is what regional scale models report. Little has been investigated with observed data at regional level to compare these scenarios with what has happened in reality. The objective was to determine whether the meteorological data for the period of 1961-2010 recorded any trend of change in maximum, minimum, average temperature and precipitation and thus determine the direction and magnitude of change at regional and state level. The results shown in the graphs and tables in this study indicate that during the time period under study, there is evidence of change over time for the variables analyzed. It was found that change trends are not uniform, but contradictory for different variables and studied localities. In some localities the change of a single variable is positive and in others negative. Statewide, the average temperature has increased 0.9 °C over the period under study, with fluctuations -0.6 °C to 2.5 °C between state regions. Also, for the same period, there was an increase in the anomaly of the average annual total precipitation of 0.5% with fluctuations between regions of -12.1% to 10.2%.

Palabras llave : local climate change; Tabasco.

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