Abstract

BOJORQUEZ-SERRANO, José Irán et al. Vulnerability and risk model of rainfed maize production in Nayarit, Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.spe13, pp.2475-2485. ISSN 2007-0934.

In recent years it has increased the impact of weather phenomena in Mexico. This has triggered the need for a better understanding of the vulnerability and risk to such events, particularly in the agricultural sector. In Nayarit it has been documented in time series, the impacts to rainfed maize production (municipal average yields), but has not been quantified the degree of vulnerability and the risk level of this economic activity. The aim of this study was to assess the vulnerability and risk of the maize producing area under rainfed in the state of Nayarit, Mexico. The "Methodological Guide for the Assessment of Vulnerability to Climate Change" was used in three stages: 1) know who, what and why the maize-producing area is vulnerable; 2) it was modeled through indicators the dynamics from the vulnerable object; and 3) the vulnerability and risk model was validated. With this, the summer precipitation and the danger factor in three levels of intensity with their respective impact on yield in terms of probability were identified. Also through a selection of vulnerability indicators for three factors: physical, economic and social, was possible to generate through a multiple linear regression model the corresponding equation that allowed explaining the dynamics of maize grain yield under rainfed. By feeding the model with data from the time series 1980-2012, it was generated and validated a risk model, which by selecting year 2010, allowed to represent and identify the vulnerability distribution of the municipality to rainfall as risk factor under study.

Keywords : climate change; climate variability; indicators.

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