Resumo

MEDINA-GARCIA, Guillermo et al. Effect of climate change on the productive potential of beans in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.spe13, pp.2465-2474. ISSN 2007-0934.

Bean is the second most important crop after maize in Mexican food, with a surface of 1 590 876 ha, of which 85.5% is grown under rainfed conditions. In addition of vulnerability to weather conditions, there is the uncertainty of the impact of climate change on yield and production of this legume in the years to come. Temperature and precipitation anomalies for the period 2021-2080, estimated with assemble of 11 general circulation models to generate temperature maps and precipitations to come from the reference climatology 1961 to 2010 were used. Potentially productive areas for bean under rainfed for reference climatology and future climate scenarios in two representative pathways of concentration of greenhouse gases were obtained. The surfaces of the areas with productive potential in future climate scenarios were quantified. The results show an increase in temperature and its influence in reducing areas with high production potential, decreasing as time moves forward in the years 2030, 2050 and 2070 in the RCP 4.5, regarding current weather conditions, passing from 1 887 426 ha with the current climate to 1,121,163 ha in 2070. Similarly the average production potential decreases towards the future, from 6 319 789 ha in the current scenario to 4 907 647 ha in the year 2070. Similar results but with higher surface decrease of productive potential were found in RCP 8.5. The results could be used to design strategies to address climate change in bean production areas, as it could be the search for new bean varieties that adapt to high temperature and tolerant to low moisture availability conditions.

Palavras-chave : Phaseolus vulgaris; Mexico; global warming; production potential; Rcp.

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