Resumo

URESTI-GIL, Jesús; ESPINOSA-GARCIA, José Antonio; INURRETA-AGUIRRE, Héctor Daniel  e  URESTI-DURAN, Diana. Evaluation of agricultural-forestry sector for adaptation to climate change in the south-southeast of Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.8, pp.1997-2009. ISSN 2007-0934.

Climate change will impact negatively the productivity of the agricultural-forestry sector, putting at risk food security. To develop plans for adaptation to climate change in these sectors, it is necessary to count with information on their capacity to adapt. This study aimed to develop a synthetic index of adaptability to climate change (ICA) at municipal level in eight representative basins from south-southeast of Mexico (Balsas-Mezcala, Grijalva-Concordia, Grijalva-Villahermosa, Laguna de Terminos, Nautla, Papaloapan, Tehuantepec, Yucatan). ICA was developed based on five sub-indexes: natural resources (RN), development of human capacities (DH), economic development (DE), infrastructure development (DI); technological development (DT), each sub index was assessed using different variables obtained from the characterization, at municipal level, from natural resources, socio-economic, technological and infrastructural aspects; the information used was obtained from different official sources, that was processed, analyzed and brought together in databases. Finally the ICA obtained for each municipality, was expressed cartographically. In the study area 255 municipalities have a low level of adaptation, 350 average level and only 19 a high level. Most municipalities with low ICA are in the mountains, while municipalities with high ICA contain cities, where high GDP increases DE and therefore ICA.

Palavras-chave : cartography; databases; decision making; planning; synthetic index.

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