Resumo

MORENO-SAENZ, Lucero Ivone; GONZALEZ-ANDRADE, Salvador  e  MATUS-GARDEA, Jaime Arturo. Mexico’s dependence on maize imports in the age of NAFTA. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.1, pp.115-126. ISSN 2007-0934.

The internal maize production has not been sufficient to supply domestic demand. On the other hand, imports of the grain have increased due to trade openness and especially since the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), which is the result of changes on agricultural policies. This paper analyses the context of national maize production, the changes made since NAFTA was enacted and the development of Mexico's dependence on maize imports. The methodology used is the following. First an exploratory analysis was carried out on the supply and demand of maize in Mexico from 1980-2011. Subsequently, in order to identify the main variables that determine the supply and demand, a system of simultaneous equations was laid out, which was estimated through the two-stage least squares method. The results show that Mexico has a growing dependence on maize imports and also that the internal market is mainly influenced by the rural expected average price. It is recommended to analyze and reestablish the role of the State in promoting more convincing and effective fostering policies in the agricultural sector.

Palavras-chave : food security; maize demand; model of simultaneous equations; maize supply.

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