Abstract

VELASCO HERNANDEZ, María de los Ángeles et al. Trends and variability of climate change indices: agricultural focus, in two regions of Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2015, vol.6, n.7, pp.1587-1599. ISSN 2007-0934.

The simultaneous impact of natural climate variability and climate change on agricultural activity induces a food security risk. The main objective of this research was to identify trends both increase or decrease in temperature and precipitation, as well as variability in the rates of climate change, with emphasis on agriculture for the corn region of Serdan, in 2014. Due to incomplete information on daily weather data from weather stations in the region, was used as support the "closest" weather station to the study site, located in El Carmen Tequexquitla, Tlaxcala; an analysis of data quality was made using the software RClimDex to two relatively close municipalities. Precipitation (PCP), maximum temperatures (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) daily scale series, were evaluated from 1970 to 2012. From the 27 calculated indexes 6 were selected, identifying a extreme variability of these associated with the simultaneous impact of natural climate variability and modified by climate change: 1) consecutive dry days (DSC); 2) consecutive wet days (DHC); 3) days with freezing weather (Dhem); 4) total annual precipitation (PTA); 5) equal or greater precipitation than 10mm (PCP10); and 6) temperature at or above 25 °C (T25), exploring the possibility of increased "heat waves". The auxiliary station from El Carmen Tequexquitla allowed us to deduce the behavior of climate variability in the region. Also found a relationship of PCP with the event phase of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with the warm phase 1977 and 1998, a decrease in total annual rainfall was also found.

Keywords : RClimdex; food security; teleconnection; outliers.

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