Abstract

MORA OROZCO, Celia De La et al. Climate change impact on the evaporation trends in the dam La Vega, Teuchitlán, Jalisco, Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.spe10, pp.1993-2005. ISSN 2007-0934.

Climate change impact on water resources is predicted as a potential problem, reducing the amount of water for agriculture, the industry and domestic use as well. A number of studies are underway to better understand this problem. In this research, five decades of meteorological data (1961-2009) were analysed to assess the effect of climate change on evaporation trends in the dam La Vega. The Mann-Kendall statistic was used to identify the trend of the meteorological variables; maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation and evaporation as well as the potential evaporation of the dam La Vega. The results showed that during the period 1961-1969, only the evaporation showed significant upward with a value of S of 24 and a correlation coefficient of 0.7015. The period 1970-1979 showed positive and negative trends, for the maximum temperature the S value corresponded to 24, with a correlation coefficient of 0.4613, which represents a significant upward trend. Evaporation in this period had a negative trend with an S value of -25, with a correlation coefficient of0.4877, and a significant trend for decreasing. In the period of 1980-1989, the precipitation showed a negative trend with S value of -27 and correlation coefficient of 0.5324 with a significant decreasing trend. The periods 1990-1999 and 2000-2009, showed similar trends for maximum temperature and evaporation of the reservoir. For 1990-1999, the maximum temperature showed a positive trend with S value of 25, and a correlation coefficient of0.5447 and a significant upward trend. For the same period, the reservoir evaporation also showed a positive trend with S value of 29, correlation coefficient of0.6404 and significant upward trend. In the period 2000-2009, the maximum temperature presented an S value of 24 with correlation coefficient of0.6684 and significant upward trend. The evaporation ofthe reservoir had the same tendency with S value of 25, coefficient of correlation of 0.5911 and significant upward trend. We concluded that, the periods between 1961-1989 showed no significant trends in meteorological variables, on the contrary, the period 1990-2009 presented clear trends for the increasing maximum temperature and the evaporation ofthe reservoir. However, it is an expected behaviour due to the evaporation of a body of water depends largely on the ambient temperature and other environmental variables and characteristics of a natural water body. However, according to the results, the increased temperature might adversely affect evaporation loss in the dam La Vega.

Keywords : climate change; dam La Vega; evaporation.

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