Resumen

TOPETE ANGEL, Jorge Pedro et al. Using the Newhall model to depict the impacts of climate change on soil moisture in Jalisco, Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.spe10, pp.1859-1870. ISSN 2007-0934.

This study aimed to estimate the impacts of climate change for the period 2040-2069 on soil moisture and drought on agricultural land in the State of Jalisco, Mexico, considering three soil textural classes: coarse textured, medium textured and fine textured. To represent the fiiture climate mentioned above, simulated precipitation and temperature from the model MPIM-ECHAM5 GCM downscaled (Delta Method) and emissions scenario A2 greenhouse gas data were used. This information was retrieved from the site Earth System Grid (ESG) of WorldClim shaped grid images, which were converted into raster images with a resolution of 2.5 arcmin. Using the model Newhall these data and climate data for the period 1961-1990 to simulate wet days, dry days and dry half days, and the total number of consecutive wet days during the year was implemented. The results of the simulations of Newhall for both climatic periods were compared by statistical analysis to determine the possible impact of climate change on the availability of soil moisture in agricultural areas of Jalisco. Statistically significant trends (p< 0.05) showed that the temperature and potential evapotranspiration will increase, while the length ofthe growing season will decrease and this will significant effect on sites of médium texture, followed by fine textured. Other (although not statistically significant), trends identified were that, the average number of wet and dry days will decrease; counterparty, dry days will increase. These results indicate the need to implement adaptation measures focused on the economics of soil water status and soil treatments to improve moisture retention capacity and water harvesting projects in situ.

Palabras llave : climate; soil moisture; soil texture; model Newhall.

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