Resumo

ZARAZUA-VILLASENOR, Patricia et al. Climatic and agroclimatic change for the fall-winter cycle in the Ciénega region of Chapala. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.spe2, pp.295-308. ISSN 2007-0934.

The objectives of this paper were to quantify the trend of the climatic variables for the Autumn-Winter cycle during 1961-2006 periods in order to establish future climatic and agroclimatic scenarios for the Autumn-Winter cycle and to assess the impact of climate change on wheat development in Ciénega region of Chapala, Jalisco, Mexico. The data from 10 weather stations were used to retrospectively analyze the climatic change and general circulation models in order to estimate future climatic change. The standard normal homogeneity test was applied to detect trend changes in the observed values. Future scenarios were generated for five climatic parameters and five agroclimatic parameters, in order to assess climatic change impacts on wheat. The results showed a change in the trend of maximum and minimum temperatures around the year 1983. In future scenarios, the maximum temperature will increase up to 6.4 °C by the end of the XXI century, causing increases in average temperature and temperature variation. The minimum temperature is maintained between 9 and 10 °C throughout the century. Evapotranspiration will increase, there will be acceleration in the heat units' accumulation, day and night temperatures will increase and the number of chilling hours will decrease. Wheat cultivation will suffer unfavorable conditions for vernalization and a shortening of phenological stages, so that the use of varieties with lower vernalization requirements and greater tolerance to hot conditions, will be one adaptation measurement to continue the wheat cultivation in the studied area.

Palavras-chave : Triticum spp.; future climatic scenarios; impact of climatic change; wheat phenology.

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