Abstract

MARROQUIN MARTINEZ, Gaspar  and  CHALITA TOVAR, Luis Eduardo. Application of Box-Jenkins methodology for forecasting prices in tomatoes. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.4, pp.573-577. ISSN 2007-0934.

Agri-food products have as a distinctive economic characteristic, its high variability in prices. Given the uncertainty of prices, a possible way of rational planning decisions, is to develop reliable forecasts of that variable's future behavior. In this paper we used the Box-Jenkins methodology to identify an econometric autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), which fits the behavior of time series of nominal prices for beef tomato wholesaling in Mexico. According to the results we concluded that the time series under consideration, fits to an ARIMA model (23, 0, 1), this model has two autoregressive factors and a moving average. With this model there were made forecasts for 12 months, which are from December 2008 to November 2009.

Keywords : ARIMA; uncertainty; time series.

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