Resumo

SABBAGH-SANCHEZ, Adriana et al. Behavior of comsumption of fresh potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.4, pp.559-572. ISSN 2007-0934.

The mexican producers of fresh potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), currently say that an increase in consumption per capita, would solve the problems related to the tuber-market. The aim of this paper is to understand the behavior of fresh potato consumption in long term; therefore, it was formulated and estimated a simultaneous equations model consisting of two supply equations, one for demand, four price equations and two identities. The model was estimated by least squares method in two stages, using annual national data for the period 1960-2006. The results indicated that in 2000-2007 period, the annual consumption per capita of fresh potatoes was of 16 kg and that the factors that explain the behavior of this variable were: potato prices for consumer (PCPR), tortilla price (PTR), egg prices for consumer (PCHR), rice prices for consumer (PCAR), pork prices for consumer (PCCCR), chicken meat prices for consumer (PCCPR), the real budget for consumption per capita (PCRP) and demanded quantity of potatoes a year late (QDP_t-1), with an elasticity of -0.2, 0.2, -0.1, -0.2, -0.004, -0.3, 0.2 and 0.13, respectively. Tendency of factors affecting fresh potatoes consumption, said that at long term, the annual per capita consumption will be of 20 kg, a well below the more than 80 kg per capita currently consumed by Europeans and therefore, national producers should seek to add value to fresh potatoes, through the processing of the product.

Palavras-chave : consumption per capita; imports; phytosanitary restrictions; production; simultaneous equations model.

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