Resumo

RODRIGUEZ BENAVIDES, Domingo  e  VENEGAS-MARTINEZ, Francisco. Efectos de las exportaciones en el crecimiento económico de México: Un análisis de cointegración, 1929-2009. EconoQuantum [online]. 2011, vol.7, n.2, pp. 55-71. ISSN 1870-6622.

The aim of this paper is to examine the hypothesis "Export Led Growth" for the Mexican case, during the period 1929-2009, which states that the expansion of exports may positively affect economic growth. This is accomplished through econometric techniques of multivariate time series, specifically by using Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality analysis. Through the estimation of an error correction model, a stable long-term relationship between exports and real GDP in Mexico is found, and the direction of causality runs from exports to GDP growth.

Palavras-chave : exportaciones; crecimiento económico; cointegración; modelos de corrección del error; causalidad de Granger.