Resumo

CUEVAS AHUMADA, Víctor M.. Inflación, crecimiento y política macroeconómica en Brasil y México: una investigación teórico-empírica. EconoQuantum [online]. 2008, vol.4, n.2, pp.35-78. ISSN 2007-9869.

This paper analyzes the basic determinants of inflation and output variations in Brazil and Mexico. To that end, we specify and estimate a VAR model for each country, which is consistent with a medium-sized, open economy with a flexible exchange rate regime and free capital mobility. The evidence shows that the pass-through effect from exchange rate to prices is stronger in Mexico than in Brazil. We also find that Brazil exploits, to a much greater extent than Mexico, the gains in international competitiveness resulting from real currency depreciations. A fiscal expansion, on the other hand, brings about economic growth only in the case of Brazil. These findings can be explained by both the higher degree of openness of the Mexican economy and its greater reliance on imported capital and intermediate goods. Finally, in both nations, there is evidence indicating that: (i) monetary shocks raise the price level and generate a small and transitory increase in real output, (ii) wage increases are not an important source of inflationary pressure, and (iii) a real exchange rate depreciation does not improve the trade balance, suggesting that the Marshall-Lerner condition is not satisfied. As we shall see, all of the above have some relevant policy implications.

Palavras-chave : inflación; crecimiento; política económica; modelos VAR.

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