Resumo

JASSO-ARRIAGA, Xochitl et al. Scenarios and model of land use within a natural protected area: Ejido de San Antonio Acahualco. agric. soc. desarro [online]. 2013, vol.10, n.3, pp.265-282. ISSN 1870-5472.

Prospective is an approach to planning that offers future alternatives of fact scenarios, taking into consideration aspects that influence the behavior of the phenomenon being studied. Therefore, it is useful for the design of strategies of actions based on proactivity and on theoretical models, to reverse socio-territorial costs. This study presents three future alternatives regarding land requirements for agricultural, housing and green area uses, sustained on territorial fragmentation, which has fostered a disproportionate growth of the three productive sectors, mostly in the decline of activities from the primary sector and the creation of gray spaces. The first scenario is the catastrophic, which evidences that the availability of land will be affected in 20 years. The second scenario is the trending and it projects that in 30 years there will be a land deficit for agricultural, housing and green area uses; and the third scenario is the desirable and feasible, which postpones the land deficit to 60 years. Faced with these prospective behaviors, traditional knowledge is reconsidered proactively for applying agro-forestry and conserving agro-biodiversity, to reverse the socio-territorial costs that social and economic welfare implies for peasant families.

Palavras-chave : agro-biodiversity; agro-forestry; territorial fragmentation; planning; proactivity; prospective.

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