Resumo

OVANDO-HIDALGO, Natalia; TUN-GARRIDO, Juan; MENDOZA-GONZALEZ, Gabriela  e  PARRA-TABLA, Víctor. Effect of climate change on the distribution of keystone species of the coastal dune vegetation in the Yucatán Peninsula, Mexico. Rev. Mex. Biodiv. [online]. 2020, vol.91, e912883.  Epub 02-Dez-2020. ISSN 2007-8706.  https://doi.org/10.22201/ib.20078706e.2020.91.2883.

The consequences of climate change on ecosystems may depend largely on their effect on the distribution of species that play a key role in communities. The aim of this work was to model the potential distribution, current and future, of 5 key species of coastal dune vegetation of the Yucatán Peninsula. Particularly the expected changes in areas currently destined for conservation were evaluated. The maximum entropy method was used, including the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, which respectively consider a moderate and drastic increase in greenhouse gas emissions, and the general CNRM-CM5 circulation model to the 2080 horizon. The models showed that under both scenarios, the distribution of the selected species would decrease markedly, with a reduction from 72% to 94% for scenario 4.5 and from 82% to 93% for scenario 8.5, and that most of the protected natural areas would not maintain favorable environmental conditions for the 5 species studied. However, it was identified that protected areas northeast of the peninsula, and an unprotected area at the north of the state of Yucatán, could conserve a limited area that would favor the distribution of these species.

Palavras-chave : Protected areas; Climate change; Coastal dunes; Key species; Ecological niche modeling (…revisar si estas key words corresponden a su version en español; no las proporcionó en la versión original).

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