Abstract

GUITERREZ, Erick  and  TREJO, Irma. Effect of climatic change on the potential distribution of five species of temperate forest trees in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Biodiv. [online]. 2014, vol.85, n.1, pp.179-188. ISSN 2007-8706.  https://doi.org/10.7550/rmb.37737.

Pinus ayacahuite, P. hartwegii, Abies hickelii, Quercus laurina and Q. ocoteifolia are species distributed at very high altitudes, so they will be more sensitive to climate change. We calculated the probability of distribution of each species to certain environmental conditions throughout potential distribution maps calculated from the total area occupied in the country and obtained the percentage of change under conditions of climate change proposed by 2 general circulation models with 2 emission scenarios. The results show that the 5 species will experience reduction in its distribution, due to changes in temperature and precipitation. This might be supposed a significant decline in their populations and even predict some local extinctions along their current distribution.

Keywords : Abies; establishment; Pinus; precipitation; Quercus; species sensitivity; temperature.

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