Abstract

SALAZAR-NUNEZ, Héctor F.; LOZANO-DIEZ, José Antonio  and  VENEGAS-MARTINEZ, Francisco. Why does Mexico have to direct its economic growth towards exports in the T-MEC? empirical evidence 1993-2019. Panor. econ. (Ciudad de México) [online]. 2020, vol.16, n.31, pp.139-156.  Epub Feb 23, 2021. ISSN 1870-2171.  https://doi.org/10.29201/pe-ipn.v16i31.266.

This paper is aimed at examining if there is a causal link between Gross Domestic Product and Exports for the countries that integrate the T-MEC on the basis of cointegration and Granger-causality techniques. The analysis is also extended by using the estimation method of fully modified ordinary least squares (FMOLS). Empirical evidence shows that Gross Domestic Product and Exports of Canada, Mexico and USA are I(1), but when applying the cointegration tests, only the variables belonging to Mexico were cointegrated. Finally, the causality test is applied and it was found that Gross Domestic Product and Exports of Mexico have a causal relation-ship of a bidirectional type. Therefore, economic policies destined to favor exports will also favor economic growth and vice versa.

Keywords : exports, economic growth; time series models; cointegration; econometric methods.

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