Resumo

JAVIER TRIVEZ, F.; REYES, Ángel Mauricio  e  JAVIER ALIAGA, F. Análisis coyuntural y prospectivo de la industria maquiladora de exportación mexicana. Econ. mex. Nueva época [online]. 2008, vol.17, n.1, pp.63-99. ISSN 1665-2045.

The aim of the paper is to analyze the current situation and perspectives, both at the short run and middle run, ofthe Mexican exportation maquiladora industry. It is to combine quantitative economic conjuncture analysis with its principal components, that is, the empiric base (statistical information in monthly time series, in this case Mexican aggregated value of exports by maquila services in total national and regional levels in Mexico) and the quantitative methods (statistical-econometrics techniques). For this purpose we present a methodological proposal that models the time series through ARIMA models with outliers and calendar effects, and next we use a reduced model-based procedure for the signal extraction of these time series. The trend cycle component is the appropriate way to analyze its underlying evolution. Using the concepts of underlying growth and inertia, we can extract the main conclusions for the current situation of the Mexican maquila sector, including the regional level.

Palavras-chave : conjunctural analysis; signal extraction; underlying growth; ARIMA models; forecast.

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