Resumo

JIMENEZ LOPEZ, Eduardo. Spatial Markov Chains to simulate the growth of the Toluca Metropolitan Area, 2017-2031. Econ. soc. territ [online]. 2019, vol.19, n.60, pp.109-140. ISSN 2448-6183.  https://doi.org/10.22136/est20191324.

The objective of this paper is to present a methodology that simulates the expansion of urban sprawl and show its application in the Metropolitan Area of Toluca. Using the Spatial Markov Chains and a random diffusion rule in pixel level, a growth projection method is proposed. The goodness of fit metrics are detailed to compare the accuracy/inaccuracy of the satellite images and the results of the Model simulations. It is shown that the use of tools is robust for spatial analysis, allowing to build an alternative predictive model to the traditional approach to growth.

Palavras-chave : urban expansion; spatial Markov Chains; random diffusion rule; goodness of fit metrics.

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