Resumo

LORIA, Eduardo  e  SALAS, Emmanuel. Divorces and economic growth in Mexico. A forecast. Pap. poblac [online]. 2019, vol.25, n.101, pp.175-212.  Epub 26-Jun-2020. ISSN 2448-7147.  https://doi.org/10.22185/24487147.2019.101.27.

The slow growth of Mexico is a major concern in academia and decision makers. Several hypotheses have been formulated for explanation. We focus our attention on the deficiencies of human capital generated by the increasing divorce rate. Arias et al. (2010) point out that the social stress derived from divorce reduces the intellectual and cognitive potential of children and we propose that also those involved, so that in the long term negatively impacts total factor productivity, the main driver of long-term growth . We modeled the divorce rate in Mexico (2005Q1-2016Q1) based on the “independence effect” hypothesis with five VEC (1) models. We found that the Female Participation Rate, the Critical Labor Conditions Rate for men and having one or two children promote divorces.

Palavras-chave : Divorce; economic growth; productivity; structural change; cointegration.

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