Abstract

DAVILA-CERVANTES, Claudio Alberto. Mathematical adjustment of general mortality in Mexico 2000, 2005 and 2010. Pap. poblac [online]. 2012, vol.18, n.74, pp.01-34. ISSN 2448-7147.

I present a methodology based on Cubic Splines to fit the general mortality curve in Mexico by sex at all ages for the years 2000, 2005 and 2010. This method consists in fitting a polynomial of third degree in the first four ages (fitting them perfectly); between ages four and 80 we fit a cubic spline using five nodes; we fit another third-degree polynomial beginning at age 80. We employ 24 parameters to estimate the mortality curve in the full age range. This model presents an excellent goodness of fit in men, which increases over the years; for women, the goodness of fit is, in general, better than that for men. It is a relatively parsimonious estimation of mortality; it maintains the mortality curve's changes in concavity and allows the realization of mortality projections in different contexts and causes of death.

Keywords : Mortality; cubic splines; mathematical modeling; Mexico; full age range.

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