Abstract

MINA-VALDES, Alejandro. Use of survival functions in social sciences and in population studies; application in the case of Mexico. Pap. poblac [online]. 2009, vol.15, n.61, pp.53-74. ISSN 2448-7147.

This article presents useful probabilistic, statistical and mathematical bases to obtain survival functions employed in the description of the tendency by age in time, to the extinction of a population. After introducing the theoretical bases of said functions, an exercise with data for Mexico is carried out; these data allow projecting the structure by age of the mortality of this country. The fact of obtaining mortality rates for the sort and long terms, where the improvements of life expectancy for the future might be quantified works for, among other things, legislating on the retirement ages for the workforce and on the convenience of broadening them and how many years more.

Keywords : survival functions; casualty probability; survival probability; mortality force; life expectancy; retirement age; Mexico.

        · abstract in Spanish     · text in Spanish     · Spanish ( pdf )