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Papeles de población

versión impresa ISSN 1405-7425

Resumen

ORDORICA-MELLADO, Manuel. In the search for the steady state of the planet population. Pap. poblac [online]. 2009, vol.15, n.61, pp. 39-51. ISSN 1405-7425.

The objective of the present work is to build a mathematical function that describes the evolution of the world's population up to the year 2050, so as to establish scenarios of what might occur in the short, mid and long terms, in the case of reaching the steady state. A logistic function is utilized to describe the dynamics of the demographic growth rate. The hypothesis of a zero demographic growth is established with three alternatives in the values of the superior asymptote. The scenarios in terms of the number of inhabitants in the three hypotheses of the superior limit are not so different. The world will reach nine million in the three suppositions. What is more, in this article the incorporation of age into the logistic model is analyzed from the theoretical viewpoint.

Palabras llave : demographic growth; life expectancy; world population; steady population.

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