Resumo

ORDORICA MELLADO, Manuel. Mortality projection through autoregressive integrated moving average model. Pap. poblac [online]. 2004, vol.10, n.42, pp.249-264. ISSN 2448-7147.

In order to apply new statistical tools to make population projections, the purpose of this paper is to project total number of deaths for Mexico through Box-Jenkins methodology of time series, using autoregressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA), with total deaths data since 1922 to 2000. The Box-Jenkins method is linked to the past and do not consider the effect of the population age structure over the number of deaths. In spite of this important limitation of the model, it could be useful to short run demographic projections.

Palavras-chave : mortality projections; time series; vital statistics; Box-Jenkins; Mexico.

        · resumo em Espanhol     · texto em Espanhol     · Espanhol ( pdf )