Resumen

MONTERO-MONSALVO, Emmanuel et al. Oil and gasoline market analysis in Mexico, 1996-2015. Agrociencia [online]. 2018, vol.52, n.8, pp.1179-1193. ISSN 2521-9766.

Oil is the main source of energy for the development of human activities, since it represents 40% of the total energy consumed. The objective of this study was to analyze the oil and gasoline market in Mexico and the factors that determine them. The hypothesis was that the supply of oil is highly price inelastic and that the demand for gasoline is due to a great extent to the number of vehicles in circulation. The applied model was a simultaneous equation econometric one fed with statistical series of data from 1995 to 2015 and estimated with the method of two stage least squares (MC2E). The supply of crude oil in Mexico is highly inelastic (0.0005) to the ratio of international price and the barrel price of crude oil in the country and its effects are both inelastic and negative for the extraction cost (-0.17) and the proven reserves in the country (-0.04). The applied model was a simultaneous equation econometric one fed with statistical series of data from 1995 to 2015 and estimated with the method of two stage least squares (MC2E). The supply of crude oil in Mexico is highly inelastic (0.0005) to the ratio of international price and the barrel price of crude oil in the country and its effects are both inelastic and negative for the extraction cost (-0.17) and the proven reserves in the country (-0.04). The demand for national gasoline is inelastic to its own price (-0.67) and the number of vehicles in Mexico (0.71). The international price of crude oil is transmitted inelastically (0.87) to the domestic barrel price of crude oil. Gasoline foreign trade balance in Mexico (imports minus exports) can be reduced with the amount of oil produced internationally and with the supply of crude oil in Mexico.

Palabras llave : supply; demand; price; foreign trade balance; oil; gasoline.

        · resumen en Español     · texto en Español | Inglés     · Español ( pdf ) | Inglés ( pdf )