Resumo

MENDOZA-HERNANDEZ, J. María; ZERMENO-GONZALEZ, Alejandro; COVARRUBIAS-RAMIREZ, J. Manuel  e  CORTES-BRACHO, J. Jesús. Climate predictions for the state of Coahuila using the precis model under two emissions scenarios. Agrociencia [online]. 2013, vol.47, n.6, pp.523-537. ISSN 2521-9766.

Climate is a limiting factor in agricultural production, and in the face of imminent climate change, this study was conducted for diagnostic purposes to determine future climate changes and their effects on agriculture in the state of Coahuila México. In this context, current climate was analyzed using data from 40 weather stations located in different regions of Coahuila: precipitation and temperature data measured during the reference period 1961-1990. This analysis consisted in classifying climate by the Kóppen method, modified by Enriqueta García. The numerical model PRECIS (a scaled model from the Hadley Center, England) was used to obtain the projections of temperature and precipitation for 2020, 2050 and 2080, and with these projections, climate was reclassified to detect differences in the climate formulas. From the climatic scenarios established by IPCC, A2 (regional condition without restrictions) and B1 (global conditions with certain restrictive and control measures) were chosen as regulators of the climate projections for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The analysis of the results showed that, according to scenario A2, increases in average temperatures of up to 4.4 °C with higher maximum and minimum temperature are predicted for each season in 2080. For precipitation, three scenarios were predicted: in some municipalities precipitation will be lower than the yearly average, while in others it will remain close to the current average; municipalities in the northern part of the state will experience average increases of 12, 20 and up to 45 %. Extreme events, such as drought and floods, will increase and be more intense. Although control measures were established (scenario B1), for 2080, temperature would increase 2.7 °C on average. The projections of changes in temperature and rainfall distribution will affect agricultural activities in Coahuila.

Palavras-chave : climate; climatic formula; temperature; precipitation.

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