Abstract

REYES-HERNANDEZ, Marlen R.  and  MEJIA-REYES, Pablo. Political Budget Cycle in Mexico, 1980-2014: An Econometric Approach. Gest. polít. pública [online]. 2016, vol.25, n.2, pp.415-445. ISSN 1405-1079.

The aim of this paper is to determine the presence of political budget cycles related to the elections of presidents in Mexico over the period 1980-2014. To do so, autoregressive and moving average models, extended to take account of economic shocks, are estimated for the total public expenditure, the programmable expenditure as well as the components of the latter. Our results suggest that economic shocks (measured by manufacturing production) play a minor role in the dynamics of public expenditure and, more important, that political budget cycles are present in total expenditure as well as current and capital expenditure, among others. This evidence reflects opportunist conducts of governments to remain in power as well as the use of public resources to benefit specific political groups.

Keywords : public expenditure; political budget cycle.

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