Resumo

SALAS-AGUILAR, Víctor; PAZ-PELLAT, Fernando; MENDEZ-GONZALEZ, Jorge  e  NAJERA-LUNA, Juan Abel. Application of a Bayesian approach to adjust biomass equations of Prosopis laevigata in Northern Mexico. Madera bosques [online]. 2021, vol.27, n.spe, e2742424.  Epub 21-Fev-2022. ISSN 2448-7597.  https://doi.org/10.21829/myb.2021.2742424.

One of the biggest problems in the estimation of aboveground biomass at the global level is the choice of a correct allometric model. In Mexico, there is a need to quantify the biomass of species in arid zones. For this reason, the objectives of this work were to adjust allometric equations for estimating biomass of Prosopis using a bayesian approach (EB) and to quantify the error in the adjustment of the models: EB, Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and one get from a research published in 2012. The Bayesian model was developed on the basis of probability distributions of parameters (a and b) a priori, collected from seven experimentation sites in which we estimated the biomass (B) through basal diameter (Db) using power equations. We compared the approaches in five sizes of samples (TM) (10, 30, 60, 90 and 120); in each of them, 1000 repetitions without replacement were carried out. The 144 trees measured in the sampling sites were used to validate the setting for each sub-sample. The results showed that the EB presented the lowest error variability in the different TM. The MCO adjusted similar to EB, however its variability and the presence of outliers grew to decrease TM. The adjustment with the parameters of that research made in 2012 presented the greatest variability and demonstrated the high degree of uncertainty when estimating the biomass with fixed parameters. It is recommended the application of EB for the estimation of biomass in other species of interest and their application in national inventories.

Palavras-chave : bayesian calibration; forest inventories; allometric models; arid zones.

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