Resumen

ROSAS ROJAS, Eduardo. Inflation and inflation uncertainty in selected Latin American countries. Prob. Des [online]. 2019, vol.50, n.198, pp.113-144.  Epub 16-Nov-2019. ISSN 0301-7036.  https://doi.org/10.22201/iiec.20078951e.2019.198.64822.

This paper studies the feedback relation between inflation and inflation uncertainty in six Latin American economies during 1960-2018. Uncertainty was calculated using conditional volatility, estimated using GJR-GARCH-M models. The main conclusions are as follows: the majority of economies conformed to the Friedman-Ball hypothesis; the Cukierman-Meltzer hypothesis was corroborated in the cases of Bolivia, Mexico, Paraguay; positive shocks were found to have a significant impact on inflation uncertainty, and, thanks to the adoption of inflation targets (ITs) by governments, there was empirical evidence that volatility decreased in those economies which implemented ITs.

Palabras llave : inflation; inflation uncertainty; monetary policy; monetary aggregate M1; GARCH models.

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