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Investigaciones geográficas

versão On-line ISSN 2448-7279versão impressa ISSN 0188-4611

Resumo

BRAVO CABRERA, José Luis; AZPRA ROMERO, Enrique; RODRIGUEZ GONZALEZ, Francisco Javier  e  RODRIGUEZ LOPEZ, Olivia. Effects of ENSO on precipitation in Mexico City. Invest. Geog [online]. 2018, n.97, 00002. ISSN 2448-7279.  http://dx.doi.org/10.14350/rig.59679.

This study investigates the relationship between the phenomenon known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation, characterized by the ENSO Multivariate Index, and the annual precipitation around Mexico City. The spatial and temporal behavior of precipitation during the 1950-2010 period was also assessed, revealing that during the period mentioned the annual mean precipitation does not show a linear trend, but a variation with a single cycle only. Contingency tables and the Chi-square test were used to reject the hypothesis of independence between precipitation and ENSO. In addition, the bootstrap resampling technique showed that negative ENSO phases reduce precipitation in the Mexico City area; the neutral phase increases precipitation and lowers the probability that precipitation be below the median value. During the positive phase, precipitation is not significantly affected.

Palavras-chave : El Niño; Southern Oscillation; Mexico City precipitation; spatial and temporal distribution.

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