Abstract

BRUGUES RODRIGUEZ, Alejandro; FUENTES FLORES, Noé Arón  and  RAMIREZ CERVANTES, Alejandra. Analysis of the spatio-temporal transmission pattern of COVID-19 by municipalities of Baja California. Estud. front [online]. 2021, vol.22, e071.  Epub Oct 04, 2021. ISSN 2395-9134.  https://doi.org/10.21670/ref.2108071.

The text analyzes the spatio-temporal pattern of spread of COVID-19 in the municipalities of Baja California from epidemiological week 10 to 31 based on System Dynamics (SD) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) methodologies. The epidemic SIR model is used to model the critical factors of pandemic congestion ─infection rate and infection recovery rate─ with data from the General Directorate of Epidemiology of the Ministry of Health available on June 6, 2020. The epidemiological pattern tends to be spatially concentrated in Mexicali, Tijuana and Tecate, which are home to cross-border workers between Baja California and California. In addition, it presents a changing temporal dynamic towards the municipalities of Ensenada and Playas de Rosarito, which are the most demanded destinations by Californian tourist.

Keywords : Transmission pattern; COVID-19; Baja California municipalities.

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