Resumen

ZAVALA ALVAREZ, José. Estancamiento y desaliento del desarrollo productivo en la región agrícola del Valle de Mexicali, Baja California: un análisis tendencial. Estud. front [online]. 2006, vol.7, n.13, pp.63-94. ISSN 2395-9134.

The intention of this article is to show the conditions and tendencies of productive development of the agricultural region in the Valley of Mexicali, Baja California, during the period between 1983 and 2001, as a means of approach to the conditions of the region's agricultural development. The objetivem is derived from the hypothesis that productive agricultural activity in the region has behaved erratically, showing a tendency toward stagnation. Under such circumstances, productive development is taken as the point of departure to analyze the behavior of agricultural activity through the construction of a tendency analysis using six indicators: harvested surface, physical and economic productivity of the principal crops, production volume and value, and productive diversification. In order to carry out this analytical exercise, two statistical instruments were used: time series analysis, with a polynomial regression function, and a Gini index estimation. The results obtained showed stagnation and a discouraging evolution, in general, of the region's productive agricultural activity.

Palabras llave : agricultural development; productive development; region; Mexicali; tendency.

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