Resumo

NURLATIFAH, Amalia et al. Drought Potential in Borneo Based on the RCP 4.5 Scenario. Atmósfera [online]. 2024, vol.38, 53185.  Epub 29-Set-2023. ISSN 0187-6236.  https://doi.org/10.20937/atm.53185.

One of the impacts of climate change is an increase in the frequency and intensity of hydrometeorological disasters such as prolonged droughts. Borneo is one of the areas threatened by drought due to climate change. Therefore, it is important to identify and implement appropriate mitigation and adaptation measures. This study used the dynamical downscaling method by the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) to evaluate the potential for drought events in Borneo based on the RCP 4.5 scenario. The annual rainfall in Borneo for 2021-2050 is projected to increase compared to 1991-2020. However, the increase in annual rainfall does not free Borneo from the possibility of drought events in the future. This study’s results indicate that areas in southern Borneo, such as Banjarmasin, Pangkalan Bun, and Pontianak, will have a higher frequency of meteorological drought events and are also expected to experience longer periods of consecutive dry days between 2021-2050 compared to 1991-2020.

Palavras-chave : Climate change; dynamical downscaling; drought; SPI; consecutive dry days.

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