Resumo

OSPINA-NORENA, J. E.; GAY-GARCIA, C.; CONDE, A. C.  e  SANCHEZ-TORRES ESQUEDA, G.. Water availability as a limiting factor and optimization of hydropower generation as an adaptation strategy to climate change in the Sinú-Caribe river basin. Atmósfera [online]. 2011, vol.24, n.2, pp.203-220. ISSN 0187-6236.

The Water Evaluation and Planning Model (WEAP) 2.1 was applied to the Sinú-Caribe river basin in Colombia to create several baseline and adaptation strategy scenarios for water supply, use and demand, and to make projections for the future including the potential impacts of climate change. The analysis of water availability as a limiting factor in the supply-demand balance of the productive sectors and activities in the Sinú-Caribe river basin in Colombia shows that the supply requirement would increase and thus unmet demand would increase more quickly under climate change conditions. The scarcity indexes define the critical points in this balance by the years 2074 under current or baseline conditions and 2066 with climate change. Optimization scenarios for hydropower generation for the critical months of the year were also generated and show how water resources management strategies can mitigate the adverse effects of climate change.

Palavras-chave : Supply requeriment; management strategies; scarcity index; unmet demand.

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