Resumo

MARTINEZ ARROYO, A.; MANZANILLA NAIM, S.  e  ZAVALA HIDALGO, J.. Vulnerability to climate change of marine and coastal fisheries in México. Atmósfera [online]. 2011, vol.24, n.1, pp.103-123. ISSN 0187-6236.

The vulnerability of fisheries to climate change in México is explored on the basis of an overview of the possible impacts of physical variables of ecosystems and habitats which sustain these fisheries, taking in consideration the socioeconomic and ecological problems which hinder their sustainability. Marine environments were analyzed in view of their importance in sustaining the populations of the main commercial species during some stage of their life cycle, and which are susceptible to be affected by climatic variables. We addressed coral reefs, sea grasses, coastal lagoons, wetlands, sea currents, frontal systems and upwelling, based on the climatic scenarios generated by three general circulation models -ECHAM5/MPI, HADGEM1 and GFDL CM 2.0- as well as the scenarios of emissions A1B, A2 and B2 for the years 2030 and 2050. Impact of climate change in ecosystems and its effects on fisheries were examined, specifically with 16 of the main fisheries which constitute more than 70% of the volume and commercial value of national fisheries. The impacts, around which we have to structure adaptation and mitigation strategies, are: increase in sea surface temperature, sea level rise, and the change of precipitation patterns which will affect the volume of river flow.

Palavras-chave : ecosystems; vulnerability; fishing; scenarios; models.

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