Resumen

RIVERA SILVA, María del Rayo et al. Vulnerability of coffee production (Coffea arabica L.) to global climate change. Terra Latinoam [online]. 2013, vol.31, n.4, pp.305-313. ISSN 2395-8030.

Variability of climatic conditions is the main factor responsible for the annual oscillations of coffee production. Therefore, the present study was conducted to assess vulnerability of coffee (Coffea arabica L.) production to existing climate scenarios for the middle of XXI century in central Veracruz State, one of the most important coffee producing regions, using a model of crop development in terms of biological and climatic characteristics. This type of model is currently applied in several countries (but not in Mexico) and is preferred over the regression model or empirical models widely used in past years, because it considers the physiological particularities of the plant. The calculation of coffee yields with the model for the climatic conditions of the beginning of XXI century and its comparison with the data reported by the SAGARPA shows that the calculated yields are reliable since the correlation coefficient between calculated and observed data was 0.81. Assessment of vulnerability of coffee to climate change shows that there is a risk of a 7 to 10% loss in coffee production at the middle of XXI century principally due to decreased precipitation. The factor of change in air temperature is less important. This conclusion contradicts the results of previous studies based on the regression models or empirical models according to which vulnerability of coffee bean productivity to climate change is mainly related to temperature change and to a lesser degree to precipitation change.

Palabras llave : coffee; yield; theoretical model; climate scenarios.

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